How the polling average works
An average of published polls. It is not a forecast and it doesn't give anyone a chance of winning.
Every average follows the same rule:
- Polls count if their last day of fieldwork falls in the past 7 weeks (49 days).
- Each pollster counts once, with its newest poll. If a poll was published for more than one group, we use likely voters first, then registered voters, then all voters, then adults.
- The average is a plain mean of each candidate’s published number, rounded to one decimal, with no weighting and no adjustment.
- A candidate needs to be listed in at least half of the polls used.
- Partisan polls stay in. We say how many of the polls used were partisan or internal, so you can weigh that yourself.
- We leave out polls published with a start date after their end date, and polls that name nobody on the race’s ballot.
- An average needs at least 2 polls from 2 different pollsters. With fewer, we show the newest poll instead and say so.
The line on a race’s poll chart applies the same rule to each day in the window. It uses the polls we hold today, so a poll released late counts on the days its fieldwork covers. It shows the average as it stands now for each date, not what this site showed on that date.
Polling data from VoteHub, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Average computed by Election Wrld. See every poll.