Alaska Senate
Tue, Nov 3 · Seat held by Dan Sullivan Republican since Jan 2015
3 candidates. Sorted by most raised, FEC through Oct 14.
- Mary Peltola DemocraticDemocratic$36.9M
- Dan Sullivan RepublicanIncumbent$11.5M
- Gerald L. Heikes RepublicanRepublicanNo FEC filing found
Average of 4 polls, Sep 14 to Oct 16, from VoteHub · how it’s calculated1 is a partisan pollNewest · Data for Progress, field dates Oct 8 to Oct 16, released Oct 21, 671 likely votersPolls fetched Oct 30, 2:02 a.m. ET, from VoteHub
Peltola 47.6Sullivan 47.5
Show all 4 candidates on the ballot
- Gerald L. HeikesRepublican
- Mary PeltolaDemocratic
- Dan SullivanIncumbentRepublican
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.Independent
Write-in candidates, not printed on the ballot
- Sidney “Sid” HillIndependent
- Heather McElwainLibertarian
Showing major-party nominees, incumbents and candidates with 5%+ in the latest poll or comparable fundraising.
Polls over time
18 polls, through Election Day Nov 3The thick line is the 7-week average, not a forecast. How it’s calculated. All polls. Polls fetched Oct 30, 2:02 a.m. ET, from VoteHub.
The polls in this chart (18)
2 polls released in the last 14 days · latest results range from 1% (Heikes), 45.5 to 53% (D) and 46.1 to 49% (Sullivan) (newest 5 polls on the chart)
18 of the 19 polls for this race, each naming a candidate, plotted on the field end date.
| Pollster | Field dates | Released | Sample | Peltola | Sullivan | Heikes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | Oct 8 to Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 671 likely voters | 51 | 49 | — |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 14 to Oct 15 | Oct 16 | 578 registered voters | 48 | 47 | — |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 28 to Sep 30 | Oct 2 | 758 likely voters | 45.5 | 46.1 | — |
| co/efficient | Sep 14 to Sep 17 | Sep 18 | 799 likely voters | 46 | 48 | 1 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Sep 8 to Sep 11 | Sep 17 | 800 likely voters | 53 | 47 | — |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 20 to Aug 23 | Sep 3 | 1,495 likely voters | 50.6 | 49.4 | — |
| Alaska Survey Research | Aug 2 to Aug 5 | Aug 12 | 1,371 likely voters | 50.8 | 49.2 | — |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15 to Jun 29 | Jul 1 | 593 likely voters | 45 | 47 | — |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jun 4 to Jun 7 | Jun 15 | 1,393 likely voters | 49.4 | 44.2 | 3.7 |
| Alaska Survey Research | May 14 to May 17 | Jun 15 | 1,401 likely voters | 48.4 | 43.8 | 2.7 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16 to Apr 19 | May 3 | — | 50.8 | 47.3 | — |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16 to Apr 19 | Apr 23 | 1,946 likely voters | 52 | 48 | — |
| Alaska Survey Research | Mar 19 to Mar 22 | Mar 29 | 1,283 likely voters | 52.4 | 47.6 | — |
| Public Policy Polling | Jan 16 to Jan 17 | Mar 29 | 611 registered voters | 49 | 47 | — |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jan 8 to Jan 11 | Mar 29 | 1,681 likely voters | 48 | 46.4 | — |
| Data for Progress | Oct 17 to Oct 23 | Jun 15 | 823 likely voters | 46 | 45 | — |
| Alaska Survey Research | Jul 29 to Aug 1 | Jun 15 | 1,613 likely voters | 42.5 | 46.7 | — |
| Data for Progress | Jul 21 to Jul 27 | Jun 15 | 678 likely voters | 45 | 46 | — |
Polls left off the chart (1 of 19)
| Poll | Why it is not on the chart |
|---|---|
| Alaska Survey ResearchOct 10 to Oct 15 | Names fewer than two candidates on this ballot (lists Mary Peltola, Dan Sullvian) |
More about this race
Candidates on the ballot
- Gerald L. HeikesRepublican
- Mary PeltolaDemocratic
- Dan SullivanIncumbentRepublican
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.Independent
Write-in candidates, not printed on the ballot
- Sidney “Sid” HillIndependent
- Heather McElwainLibertarian
Source: elections.alaska.gov, dated Sep 25
Seat on the ballot, shift from 2014 to 2020: 10.5 points toward Republicans (Republican by 2.2 in 2014, Republican by 12.7 in 2020).
Vote in Alaska
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History (16 elections for this seat)
- Votes for listed candidates
- 263,027
- Election day
- November 8, 2022
US Senate, Alaska, 2022, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share OtherMurkowski, LisaWon Other 114,11843.4% OtherTshibaka, Kelly C. Other 112,10142.6% OtherChesbro, Patricia R. Other 28,23310.7% OtherKelley, Buzz A. Other 8,5753.3% - Votes for listed candidates
- 354,587
- Election day
- November 3, 2020
US Senate, Alaska, 2020, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanDan SullivanWon Republican 191,11253.9% DemocraticAl Gross Democratic 146,06841.2% OtherJohn Wayne Howe Other 16,8064.7% Scattered write-ins Write-in 6010.2% - Votes for listed candidates
- 311,441
- Election day
- November 8, 2016
US Senate, Alaska, 2016, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanLisa MurkowskiWon Republican 138,14944.4% LibertarianJoe Miller Libertarian 90,82529.2% IndependentMargaret Stock Independent 41,19413.2% DemocraticRay Metcalfe Democratic 36,20011.6% IndependentBreck A. Craig Independent 2,6090.8% IndependentTed Gianoutsos Independent 1,7580.6% Scattered write-ins Write-in 7060.2% - Votes for listed candidates
- 282,400
- Election day
- November 4, 2014
US Senate, Alaska, 2014, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanDan SullivanWon Republican 135,44548.0% DemocraticMark Begich Democratic 129,43145.8% LibertarianMark S. Fish Libertarian 10,5123.7% IndependentTed Gianoutsos Independent 5,6362.0% Scattered write-ins Write-in 1,3760.5% - Votes for listed candidates
- 255,503
- Election day
- November 2, 2010
US Senate, Alaska, 2010, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share OtherLisa MurkowskiWon Other 101,09139.6% RepublicanJoe Miller Republican 90,83935.6% DemocraticScott T. McAdams Democratic 60,04523.5% LibertarianFredrick "David" Haase Libertarian 1,4590.6% IndependentTim Carter Independent 9270.4% OtherOther Other 6020.2% IndependentTed Gianoutsos Independent 4580.2% Scattered write-ins Write-in 820.0% - Votes for listed candidates
- 317,723
- Election day
- November 4, 2008
US Senate, Alaska, 2008, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticMark BegichWon Democratic 151,76747.8% RepublicanTed Stevens Republican 147,81446.5% OtherBob Bird Other 13,1974.2% LibertarianFredrick D. "David" Haase Libertarian 2,4830.8% IndependentTed Gianoutsos Independent 1,3850.4% Scattered write-ins Write-in 1,0770.3% - Votes for listed candidates
- 308,315
- Election day
- November 2, 2004
US Senate, Alaska, 2004, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanLisa MurkowskiWon Republican 149,77348.6% DemocraticTony Knowles Democratic 140,42445.5% NonpartisanMarc J. Millican Other 8,8852.9% OtherJerry Sanders Other 3,7851.2% GreenJim Skyes Green 3,0531.0% OtherScott A. Kohlhaas Other 1,2400.4% NonpartisanTed "Big" Gianoutsos Other 7320.2% Scattered write-ins Write-in 4230.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 229,548
- Election day
- November 5, 2002
US Senate, Alaska, 2002, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanTed StevensWon Republican 179,43878.2% DemocraticFrank Vondersaar Democratic 24,13310.5% GreenJim Sykes Green 16,6087.2% OtherJim Dore Other 6,7242.9% LibertarianLeonard Karpinski Libertarian 2,3541.0% Scattered write-ins Write-in 2910.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 221,807
- Election day
- November 3, 1998
US Senate, Alaska, 1998, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanFrank H. MurkowskiWon Republican 165,22774.5% DemocraticJoseph A. "Joe" Sonneman Democratic 43,74319.7% GreenJeffrey Gottlieb Green 7,1263.2% LibertarianScott A. Kohlhaas Libertarian 5,0462.3% Scattered write-ins Write-in 6650.3% - Votes for listed candidates
- 231,916
- Election day
- November 5, 1996
US Senate, Alaska, 1996, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanTed StevensWon Republican 177,89376.7% GreenJed Whittaker Green 29,03712.5% DemocraticTheresa Nangle Obermeyer Democratic 23,97710.3% Scattered write-ins Write-in 1,0090.4% - Votes for listed candidates
- 239,714
- Election day
- November 3, 1992
US Senate, Alaska, 1992, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanFrank H. MurkowskiWon Republican 127,16353.0% DemocraticTony Smith Democratic 92,06538.4% GreenMary Jordan Green 20,0198.4% Scattered write-ins Write-in 4670.2% - Votes for listed candidates
- 189,957
- Election day
- November 6, 1990
US Senate, Alaska, 1990, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanTed StevensWon Republican 125,80666.2% DemocraticMichael Beasley Democratic 61,15232.2% Scattered write-ins Write-in 2,9991.6% - Votes for listed candidates
- 180,801
- Election day
- November 4, 1986
US Senate, Alaska, 1986, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanFrank H. MurkowskiWon Republican 97,67454.0% DemocraticGlenn Olds Democratic 79,72744.1% LibertarianChuck House Libertarian 3,1611.7% Scattered write-ins Write-in 2390.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 206,438
- Election day
- November 6, 1984
US Senate, Alaska, 1984, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanTed StevensWon Republican 146,91971.2% DemocraticJohn E. Havelock Democratic 58,80428.5% OtherOther Other 7150.3% - Votes for listed candidates
- 156,762
- Election day
- November 4, 1980
US Senate, Alaska, 1980, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanFrank H. MurkowskiWon Republican 84,15953.7% DemocraticClark S. Gruening Democratic 72,00745.9% Scattered write-ins Write-in 5960.4% - Votes for listed candidates
- 122,741
- Election day
- November 7, 1978
US Senate, Alaska, 1978, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanTed StevensWon Republican 92,78375.6% DemocraticDonald Hobbs Democratic 29,57424.1% Scattered write-ins Write-in 3840.3%
1978 to 2022: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. Senate statewide 1976-2024, retrieved Oct 28, 2026. Compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns; not an official source
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Cite this page
Election Wrld. (2026). US Senate in Alaska, election results. https://www.electionwrld.com/ak/us-senate. Retrieved October 30, 2026.
Sources
Sources: U.S. Senate: senators contact information XML (class per senator) (US government work, public domain), retrieved Oct 28, 2026; MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. Senate statewide 1976-2024 (CC0 1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns, not an official source; unitedstates/congress-legislators (current) (CC0-1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by the @unitedstates project volunteers (rosters from official congressional sources) from official returns, not an official source.
DataState data (JSON)Sources: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. Senate statewide 1976-2024, VoteHub polls (CC BY 4.0), FEC, DIME (ODC-BY), Portraits: unitedstates/images (public domain), Photo creditsData as of Oct 28, 2026