Iowa Senate
Tue, Nov 3 · Seat held by Joni Ernst Republican since Jan 2015 (not a candidate in 2026)
Ashley Hinson 46.1Josh Turek 45.8
Average of 9 polls, Sep 24 to Oct 28, from VoteHub · how it’s calculated
Newest poll
1 is a partisan pollNewest · co/efficient, field dates Oct 28, released Oct 29, 1,020 likely voters, partisan (R), per VoteHubPolls updated Oct 30, 7:30 p.m. ET, from VoteHub
Show all 3 candidates on the ballot
- Josh TurekDemocratic
- Ashley HinsonRepublican
- Thomas LaehnLibertarian
Showing major-party nominees, incumbents and candidates with 5%+ in the latest poll or comparable fundraising.
Polls over time
24 polls, through Election Day Nov 3The thick line is the 7-week average, not a forecast. How it’s calculated. All polls. Polls updated Oct 30, 7:30 p.m. ET, from VoteHub.
The polls in this chart (24)
5 polls released in the last 14 days · latest results range from 44 to 46% (D) and 43 to 48% (R) (newest 5 polls on the chart)
24 of the 27 polls for this race, each with both names, plotted on the field end date.
| Pollster | Field dates | Released | Sample | Turek | Hinson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Oct 28 | Oct 29 | 1,020 likely voters | 46 | 48 |
| Echelon Insights | Oct 16 to Oct 23 | Oct 27 | 403 likely voters | 45 | 43 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct 21 to Oct 22 | Oct 23 | 1,200 likely voters | 45 | 47 |
| co/efficient | Oct 15 to Oct 19 | Oct 20 | 863 likely voters | 45 | 48 |
| National Public Affairs | Oct 8 to Oct 12 | Oct 20 | 678 likely voters | 44 | 47 |
| YouGov | Oct 6 to Oct 12 | Oct 15 | 2,245 likely voters | 47 | 46 |
| Marist University | Oct 8 to Oct 11 | Oct 15 | — | 48 | 45 |
| Emerson College | Oct 5 to Oct 6 | Oct 9 | 650 likely voters | 45 | 46.6 |
| CNN/SSRS | Sep 29 to Oct 5 | Oct 8 | 801 likely voters | 43 | 45 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Sep 24 to Sep 28 | Oct 2 | 1,008 likely voters | 49 | 47 |
| Marist University | Sep 17 to Sep 20 | Sep 22 | 1,050 registered voters | 50 | 42 |
| co/efficient | Sep 14 to Sep 16 | Sep 17 | 831 likely voters | 42 | 46 |
| YouGov | Sep 3 to Sep 8 | Sep 11 | 2,166 registered voters | 44 | 43 |
| YouGov | Sep 3 to Sep 8 | Sep 11 | 2,041 likely voters | 47 | 43 |
| Emerson College | Aug 31 to Sep 1 | Sep 3 | 750 likely voters | 45 | 50 |
| Suffolk University | Aug 20 to Aug 23 | Aug 26 | 500 likely voters | 40.8 | 45.4 |
| Emerson College | Aug 2 to Aug 4 | Aug 6 | 712 likely voters | 45 | 48 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | Jun 23 to Jun 27 | Jul 2 | 1,003 registered voters | 50 | 46 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15 to Jun 27 | Jul 1 | 600 likely voters | 46 | 48 |
| Cygnal | Jun 16 to Jun 19 | Jun 28 | 600 likely voters | 44.2 | 46 |
| Public Policy Polling | Jun 3 to Jun 4 | Jun 9 | 557 registered voters | 46 | 46 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3 to Apr 9 | Apr 21 | 377 likely voters | 46 | 45 |
| GBAO | Mar 10 to Mar 16 | Apr 21 | 1,200 likely voters | 43 | 47 |
| Change Research | Jan 8 to Jan 11 | Apr 21 | 1,108 likely voters | 41 | 44 |
Polls left off the chart (3 of 27)
| Poll | Why it is not on the chart |
|---|---|
| Echelon InsightsApr 3 to Apr 9 | Names fewer than two candidates on this ballot (lists Ashley Hinson, Zach Wahls) |
| GBAOMar 10 to Mar 16 | Names fewer than two candidates on this ballot (lists Ashley Hinson, Zach Wahls) |
| Change ResearchJan 8 to Jan 11 | Names fewer than two candidates on this ballot (lists Ashley Hinson, Zach Wahls) |
Side by side
Left column: HinsonRight column: Turek
- Total receipts, 2025-2026 cycle, through Oct 14
- $14.1M
- $24.3M
- Cash on hand
- $2.2M
- $3.1M
- Donor-based spectrum
- LiberalCentristConservativeHinsonTurek
- Races
- Won 3 of 3
- None listed
- Years since first win
- 5
- 4
- Age on Election Day
- 43
- 47
Money: FEC bulk data, through Oct 14. One or more are matched to the FEC by name, party and seat, so a total could belong to someone else.
How these are counted
Total receipts line of each candidate’s principal campaign committee, 2025-2026 cycle. Other sites may show career, six-year or all-committee totals, which differ. Hinson: $14,147,973 received, $2,172,989 cash on hand. Turek: $24,290,521 received, $3,072,851 cash on hand. The spectrum is a published research score, not our rating. How this works. Wins and losses count the races in our results files, the same as each profile.
What changed in this race
Newest firstNEW POLLIowa Senate
Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson 48, Josh Turek 46
co/efficient, Oct 28 to Oct 28, 1,020 likely voters
NEW POLLIowa Senate
Iowa Senate: Josh Turek 45, Ashley Hinson 43
Echelon Insights, Oct 16 to Oct 23, 403 likely voters
More about this race
Candidates on the ballot
- Josh TurekDemocratic
- Ashley HinsonRepublican
- Thomas LaehnLibertarian
Source: sos.iowa.gov (PDF), dated Aug 19
Seat on the ballot, shift from 2014 to 2020: 1.8 points toward Democrats (Republican by 8.3 in 2014, Republican by 6.5 in 2020).
Vote in Iowa
Trouble voting? Election Protection hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE. A nonpartisan coalition of civil-rights and voting-rights groups, not a government service. 866ourvote.org
History (16 elections for this seat)
- Votes for listed candidates
- 1,216,646
- Election day
- November 8, 2022
US Senate, Iowa, 2022, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanChuck GrassleyWon Republican 681,50156.0% DemocraticMichael Franken Democratic 533,33043.8% OtherOther Other 1,8150.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,671,828
- Election day
- November 3, 2020
US Senate, Iowa, 2020, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanJoni ErnstWon Republican 864,99751.7% DemocraticTheresa Greenfield Democratic 754,85945.2% LibertarianRick Stewart Libertarian 36,9612.2% OtherSuzanne Herzog Other 13,8000.8% Scattered write-ins Write-in 1,2110.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,541,036
- Election day
- November 8, 2016
US Senate, Iowa, 2016, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanChuck GrassleyWon Republican 926,00760.1% DemocraticPatty Judge Democratic 549,46035.7% LibertarianCharles Aldrich Libertarian 41,7942.7% OtherJim Hennager Other 17,6491.1% IndependentMichael Luick-Thrams Independent 4,4410.3% Scattered write-ins Write-in 1,6850.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,129,700
- Election day
- November 4, 2014
US Senate, Iowa, 2014, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanJoni ErnstWon Republican 588,57552.1% DemocraticBruce Braley Democratic 494,37043.8% IndependentRick Stewart Independent 26,8152.4% LibertarianDouglas Butzier Libertarian 8,2320.7% OtherBob Quast Other 5,8730.5% IndependentRuth Smith Independent 4,7240.4% Scattered write-ins Write-in 1,1110.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,116,063
- Election day
- November 2, 2010
US Senate, Iowa, 2010, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanChuck GrassleyWon Republican 718,21564.4% DemocraticRoxanne Conlin Democratic 371,68633.3% LibertarianJohn Heiderscheit Libertarian 25,2902.3% Scattered write-ins Write-in 8720.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,502,918
- Election day
- November 4, 2008
US Senate, Iowa, 2008, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticTom HarkinWon Democratic 941,66562.7% RepublicanChristopher Reed Republican 560,00637.3% Scattered write-ins Write-in 1,2470.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,479,228
- Election day
- November 2, 2004
US Senate, Iowa, 2004, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanChuck GrassleyWonName as filed: Charles E. Grassley Republican 1,038,17570.2% DemocraticArthur Small Democratic 412,36527.9% LibertarianChristy Ann Welty Libertarian 15,2181.0% GreenDaryl A. Northrop Green 11,1210.8% OtherEdwin Fruit Other 1,8740.1% Scattered write-ins Write-in 4750.0% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,023,075
- Election day
- November 5, 2002
US Senate, Iowa, 2002, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticTom HarkinWon Democratic 554,27854.2% RepublicanGreg Ganske Republican 447,89243.8% GreenTimothy A. Harthan Green 11,3401.1% LibertarianRichard J. Moore Libertarian 8,8640.9% Scattered write-ins Write-in 7010.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 947,632
- Election day
- November 3, 1998
US Senate, Iowa, 1998, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanChuck GrassleyWonName as filed: Charles E. Grassley Republican 648,48068.4% DemocraticDavid Osterberg Democratic 289,04930.5% OtherSusan Marcus Other 7,5610.8% OtherMargaret Trowe Other 2,5420.3% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,224,054
- Election day
- November 5, 1996
US Senate, Iowa, 1996, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticTom HarkinWon Democratic 634,16651.8% RepublicanJim Lightfoot Republican 571,80746.7% IndependentSue Atkinson Independent 9,7680.8% OtherFred Gratson Other 4,2480.3% IndependentJoe Sulentic Independent 1,9410.2% OtherShirley E. Pena Other 1,8440.2% Scattered write-insName as filed: Scatter Write-in 2800.0% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,292,201
- Election day
- November 3, 1992
US Senate, Iowa, 1992, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanChuck GrassleyWon Republican 899,76169.6% DemocraticJean Lloyd-Jones Democratic 351,56127.2% OtherStuart Zimmerman Other 16,4031.3% OtherSue Atkinson Other 6,2770.5% OtherMel Boring Other 5,5080.4% OtherRosanne Freeburg Other 4,9990.4% OtherCarl Eric Olsen Other 3,4040.3% OtherRichard O'Dell Hughes Other 2,9180.2% OtherCleve Andrew Pulley Other 1,3700.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 983,933
- Election day
- November 6, 1990
US Senate, Iowa, 1990, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticTom HarkinWon Democratic 535,97554.5% RepublicanThomas J. Tauke Republican 446,86945.4% Scattered write-insName as filed: Scatter Write-in 1,0890.1% - Votes for listed candidates
- 891,762
- Election day
- November 4, 1986
US Senate, Iowa, 1986, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanChuck GrassleyWonName as filed: Charles E. Grassley Republican 588,88066.0% DemocraticJohn O. Roehrick Democratic 299,40633.6% IndependentJohn Masters Independent 3,3700.4% Scattered write-insName as filed: Scatter Write-in 1060.0% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,292,700
- Election day
- November 6, 1984
US Senate, Iowa, 1984, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share DemocraticTom HarkinWon Democratic 716,88355.5% RepublicanRoger W. Jepsen Republican 564,38143.7% IndependentGarry De Young Independent 11,0140.9% OtherOther Other 4220.0% - Votes for listed candidates
- 1,276,986
- Election day
- November 4, 1980
US Senate, Iowa, 1980, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanChuck GrassleyWonName as filed: Charles E. Grassley Republican 683,01453.5% DemocraticJohn Culver Democratic 581,54545.5% IndependentGarry De Young Independent 5,8580.5% LibertarianRobert V. Hengerer Libertarian 4,2330.3% IndependentJohn Ingram Henderson Independent 2,3360.2% - Votes for listed candidates
- 824,576
- Election day
- November 7, 1978
US Senate, Iowa, 1978, every candidate Candidate Party Votes and share Share RepublicanRoger W. JepsenWon Republican 421,59851.1% DemocraticDick Clark Democratic 395,06647.9% IndependentGerald Leo Baker Independent 4,2230.5% LibertarianBen L. Olson Libertarian 3,6890.4%
1978 to 2022: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. Senate statewide 1976-2024, retrieved Oct 28, 2026. Compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns; not an official source
Download and cite
Cite this page
Election Wrld. (2026). US Senate in Iowa, election results. https://www.electionwrld.com/ia/us-senate. Retrieved October 30, 2026.
Sources
Sources: U.S. Senate: senators contact information XML (class per senator) (US government work, public domain), retrieved Oct 28, 2026; MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. Senate statewide 1976-2024 (CC0 1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns, not an official source; unitedstates/congress-legislators (current) (CC0-1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by the @unitedstates project volunteers (rosters from official congressional sources) from official returns, not an official source.
DataState data (JSON)Sources: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. Senate statewide 1976-2024, VoteHub polls (CC BY 4.0), FEC, DIME (ODC-BY), Portraits: unitedstates/images (public domain), Photo creditsData as of Oct 30, 2026 (candidate list Oct 28, 2026)