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Senate D 45I 2R 53House D 214I 1R 218Governors D 24R 26Election Day Tue, Nov 3Seats as of Oct 28
MT-1

Montana District 1

Tue, Nov 3 · Seat held by Ryan K. Zinke Republican since Jan 2023

Aaron FlintRepublican

Aaron Flint 42.2Sam Forstag 48.1

Average of 4 polls, Sep 19 to Oct 21, from VoteHub · how it’s calculated

Newest poll

1 is a partisan pollAlso in the average: Nick Sheedy 4.7Newest · Montana State University Billings, field dates Oct 5 to Oct 21, released Oct 30Polls fetched Oct 30, 2:02 a.m. ET, from VoteHub

Sam ForstagDemocratic
Show all 3 candidates on the ballot

Showing major-party nominees, incumbents and candidates with 5%+ in the latest poll or comparable fundraising.

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Montana District 1: Aaron Flint vs Sam Forstag

Preview card: Montana District 1: Aaron Flint vs Sam Forstag

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Last election
Ryan K. Zinke (Republican) won by 7.7 points, 2024
Margin since 2022
4.6 points toward Republicans
On the 2026 ballot
3 candidates, open seat

All Montana districts

Polls over time

5 polls, through Election Day Nov 3
20%30%40%50%60%Sep 2026OctNovNov 3American Pulse Research & Polling, Sep 19 to Sep 24: Flint 45.9Public Policy Polling, Oct 12 to Oct 14: Flint 45Emerson College, Oct 12 to Oct 14: Flint 46Montana State University Billings, Oct 5 to Oct 21: Flint 32American Pulse Research & Polling, Sep 19 to Sep 24: Forstag 45.4Public Policy Polling, Oct 12 to Oct 14: Forstag 48Emerson College, Oct 12 to Oct 14: Forstag 50Montana State University Billings, Oct 5 to Oct 21: Forstag 49Forstag48.1Flint42.2

The thick line is the 7-week average, not a forecast. How it’s calculated. All polls. Polls fetched Oct 30, 2:02 a.m. ET, from VoteHub.

The polls in this chart (5)

3 polls released in the last 14 days · latest results range from 32 to 48% (R) and 43 to 50% (D) (newest 5 polls on the chart)

5 of the 6 polls for this race, each with both names, plotted on the field end date.

Polls shown in the chart, newest field end date first, with the day each was released
PollsterField datesReleasedSampleFlintForstag
Montana State University BillingsOct 5 to Oct 21Oct 30—3249
Emerson CollegeOct 12 to Oct 14Oct 22329 likely voters4650
Public Policy PollingOct 12 to Oct 14Oct 21541 likely voters4548
American Pulse Research & PollingSep 19 to Sep 24Sep 29314 likely voters45.945.4
Upswing ResearchApr 30 to May 5May 22401 likely voters4843
Polls left off the chart (1 of 6)
Polls for this race that are not on the chart, with the reason for each
PollWhy it is not on the chart
Upswing ResearchApr 30 to May 5Names fewer than two candidates on this ballot (lists Matt Rains, Aaron Flint)

Side by side

Left column: FlintRight column: Forstag

Total receipts, 2025-2026 cycle, through Oct 14
$2.9M
$4.3M
Cash on hand
$408K
$726K

Money: FEC bulk data, through Oct 14. One or more are matched to the FEC by name, party and seat, so a total could belong to someone else.

How these are counted

Total receipts line of each candidate’s principal campaign committee, 2025-2026 cycle. Other sites may show career, six-year or all-committee totals, which differ. Flint: $2,856,139 received, $408,153 cash on hand. Forstag: $4,312,110 received, $726,126 cash on hand.

What changed in this race

Newest first

Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0)

  1. NEW POLLMontana District 1

    Montana District 1: Sam Forstag 49, Aaron Flint 32

    Montana State University Billings, Oct 5 to Oct 21, 287 adults

  2. NEW POLLMontana District 1

    Montana District 1: Sam Forstag 50, Aaron Flint 46

    Emerson College, Oct 12 to Oct 14, 329 likely voters

All changes

More about this race

Candidates on the ballot

Open seat

The current holder, Ryan K. Zinke, is not on the candidate list.

Party nominees only, not the certified ballot.

Source: candidatefiling.mt.gov, dated Oct 28

Shift since 2022: 4.6 points toward Republicans (Republican by 3.1 in 2022, Republican by 7.7 in 2024).

All Montana districts

Select a shape for details. Arrow keys move between shapes.
Montana District 1 selected among its state's congressional districts, colored by the 2024 US House resultMontana District 2: Troy Downing (R), Republican by 32.0 points, 2024Montana District 1: Ryan K. Zinke (R), Republican by 7.7 points, 2024
2024 US House margin
  • D 15+ pts
  • D 5 to 15 pts
  • D under 5 pts
  • R under 5 pts
  • R 5 to 15 pts
  • R 15+ pts
  • Other winner
  • No data
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Vote in Montana

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Official results for Montana

History (10 elections for this seat)
  • No results on file 1991 to 2021

1976 to 2024: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House 1976-2024, retrieved Oct 28, 2026. Compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns; not an official source

District numbers are reused after each redistricting, so rows on older lines cover different territory than today's Montana District 1.

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Cite this page

Election Wrld. (2026). Montana District 1, US House results. https://www.electionwrld.com/mt/congress/1. Retrieved October 30, 2026.

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Sources

Sources: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House 1976-2024 (CC0 1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) from official returns, not an official source; Census TIGERweb Legislative MapServer (120th CDs layer 0, 119th CDs layer 4, 2026 SLD upper layer 1 and lower layer 2) (US Census Bureau, public domain), retrieved Oct 28, 2026; unitedstates/congress-legislators (current) (CC0-1.0), retrieved Oct 28, 2026, compiled by the @unitedstates project volunteers (rosters from official congressional sources) from official returns, not an official source.

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DataState data (JSON)Sources: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House 1976-2024, VoteHub polls (CC BY 4.0), FECData as of Oct 28, 2026